Thursday, 8 May 2014

Forecasting Tuberculosis incidence in Iran

DEPM's Narges Khanjani has co-authored a study which looks at the rate of Tuberculosis (TB) in Iran using the Box-Jenkins and SARIMA models to predict future cases.

According to the paper, Iran has had considerable success in integrating the TB control program in health and treatment network systems and by applying effective and organized management. TB incidence in Iran has decreased from 142 cases per 100,000 people in 1964 to 14.6 cases in 2011. In spite of these achievements and other effective attempts, achieving the predicted objectives is very difficult due to some uncontrollable problems including proximity to Pakistan and Afghanistan which are among the 22 highly infected countries of the world, proximity to Iraq (with its recent health crises) and to other newly independent countries in the north of Iran (with high prevalence of multidrug-resistant TB).

Monthly data of tuberculosis cases were recorded in the surveillance system of Iran tuberculosis control program from 2005 till 2011, and during 84 months, 63568 TB patients were recorded. The average was 756.8 TB cases a month. It was predicted that the total nationwide TB cases for 2014 will be about 16.75 per 100,000 people.

Click here to see the paper in full.

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